The Washington Capitals are in trouble. They find themselves trailing
the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-1 in the series after losing in overtime on
Wednesday night, a hole from which only seven second-round teams have crawled out. And while it is no consolation to Capitals fans anywhere, you could argue that the Penguins have been more lucky than good.
Here’s an example.
During
the third period of Game 1, Nick Bonino takes a pass from Carl Hagelin
in the slot and gets one past Braden Holtby. The location of this shot
is one of the most advantageous for a skater –converting at roughly 18
percent of the time during even strength — but Holtby has a clear line
of sight and extra help from defenseman Nate Schmidt in front. However,
the puck takes a weird hop off Schmidt’s stick to become Pittsburgh’s
third goal of the night. The Capitals would go on to win this game, but
it should not have needed overtime to decide it.
In
Game 2, Evgeni Malkin sends a saucer into the slot where it deflects
off Eric Fehr’s stick. Holtby allows shots from this angle to convert
only 16 percent of the time, but one fluky bounce makes this one the
game-winning goal with less than five minutes to play in regulation.
Trevor
Daley’s shot in the first period of Game 3 starts off just inside the
blue line and carries a 3.6 percent chance at lighting the lamp until
Patric Hornqvist deflects it past Holtby, giving the Penguins
an early
1-0 lead.
A
minute later a Matt Cullen pass would go off Tom Kuhnhackl’s back and
in the net, putting the Penguins up 2-0 en route to a 3-2 final score.
Daley’s
goal in Game 4 originates just inside the scoring chance area, giving
it, at best, an 8 percent probability of success — and that’s not
factoring in Capitals defenseman Karl Alzner is in good position to
block the shot. Only it caroms off Alzner’s skate, eventually finding
its way past Holtby to tie the score in the first period.
I’d
agree with you if you said that good teams make their own luck,
but Pittsburgh has been outshot 144 to 136 in the series, with
high-danger scoring chances — those that originate in the slot or crease
— also in Washington’s favor (51 to 42). According to Emmanuel Perry,
after adjusting for shot location and volume, the
Capitals should be outscoring the Penguins 12 to 11, and be tied in the
series after four games. Instead, it’s the Penguins who have the lead
on the scoreboard thanks in part to potting goals that have low
probabilities of success in the first place.
Win probabilities from rinkstats.com
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